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  • feedwordpress 22:51:41 on 2020/12/23 Permalink
    Tags: , , , , , , , , , misinformation, , , , predictions 2020, , purpose,   

    Well That Was A Year: A Review of My 2020 Predictions 


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    From the Department of Didn’t See THAT Coming…

    Yes, it’s true: Last year, I did not predict a global pandemic in 2020. COVID is a gravitational force that warps everything it touches, so I approach this annual ritual of self-grading with trepidation. As I start, I honestly don’t remember what I predicted twelve months ago…but regardless, I’m expecting a train wreck. I’ll read each one in turn, repeat the prediction below, and then free associate some thoughts on what actually transpired. Grab a glass of your favorite beverage…and let’s go:

    1. Facebook bans microtargeting on specific kinds of political advertising. OK, Facebook did NOT do this – well, not exactly. What the company DID do was ban political advertising altogether – but only in the week before, and a short period after the US election. Of course, you can certainly say that by banning all political advertising, the company ended up banned microtargeting as a result. So that’s one argument for giving myself a “Nailed it.” If that’s too weak an argument, let’s go to the fine print in my original prediction: “The pressure to do something will be too great, and as it always does, the company will enact a half-measure, then declare victory.” And that is exactly what the company did. I mean, exactly. I also wrote: “The company’s spinners will frame this as proof they listen to their critics, and that they’re serious about the integrity of the 2020 elections. As with nearly everything it does, this move will fail to change anyone’s opinion of the company. Wall St. will keep cheering the company’s stock, and folks like me will keep wondering when, if ever, the next shoe will drop.” Yup. Nailed it.
    2. Netflix opens the door to marketing partnerships. This prediction requires a bit of clarification. I was not claiming Netflix would open the door to advertising on its platform, but rather that it “may take the form of a co-produced series, or branded content, or some other “native” approach, but at the end of the day, it’ll be advertising dollars that fuel the programming.” What I didn’t realize when I made this prediction was that Netflix was already deep into product placement deals for its Netflix Originals, and that it had already made sure the money changed hands somewhere else (such as between a production company and a brand).  There is no doubt that marketing money positively benefits NetFlix’s bottom line – and the  practice absolutely accelerated in 2020, as did everything streaming-related during COVID. But there was not a significant shift in NetFlix policy related to marketing that I can find, so I’m going to say I whiffed on this one.
    3. CDA 230 will get seriously challenged, but in the end, nothing gets done, again. This is exactly what happened. In fact, it’s happening as I type this – Trump is just vetoed a veto-proof defense funding bill because it doesn’t repeal 230, and Biden has already indicated he plans on rethinking 230 next year. But even though tens of millions of American citizens became familiar with Section 230 this year, nothing came of all that noise. Nailed it.
    4. Adversarial interoperability will get a moment in the sun, but also fail to make it into law. OK I have GOT to stop writing predictions about obscure academic terminology. I mean, what the actual f*ck? What I was trying to say was this: In 2020, there would be a robust debate about the best ways to regulate Big Tech, and the ideas behind “adversarial interoperability” would get a rigorous airing. This did not happen, and just like Jeffrey Katzenberg, I blame COVID. Exactly no one wanted to debate tech policy in the middle of a global pandemic. Making things worse, toward the end of this year multiple governmental agencies decided it was time to go after Big Tech, and they went batshit with proactive lawsuits – the DOJ and a majority of states sued Google (three times, no less), the FTC sued Facebook, and I’d put money more suits are coming (looking at you, Apple and Amazon). The suits revolve around antitrust law, so the debate will now be dominated by whether or not the government can prove its case in court.  This effectively postpones intelligent debate about remedies for years. I find this state of affairs deeply annoying. But a grade must be given, and that grade is a whiff, unfortunately.
    5. 2020 will also be the year “data provenance” becomes a thing. Literally stop me from ever writing predictions after hitting the flash evaporator, OK?! This was another policy-related prediction, and if I was going to miss #4 above, I’m certainly going to whiff here as well. In the very rare case you want to know what I was on about, this is how I described the concept: “The concept of data provenance started in academia, migrated to adtech, and is about to break into the broader world of marketing, which is struggling to get its arms around a data-driven future. The ability to trace the origin, ownership, permissions, and uses of data is a fundamental requirement of an advanced digital economy, and in 2020, we’ll realize we have a ton of work left to do to get this right.” Well, in fact, if you believe Google Trends, “data provenance” did have a marked lift in 2020. Does that qualify it for “becoming a thing”? I have no f*cking idea. And again, thanks to COVID, marketers were not exactly focused on public ledgers and blockchain in 2020. Note to self: Stop predicting that something will “become a thing.” Inane. Whiff.
    6. Google zags. Oh man, oh man, I feel so close on this one. I mean, there are still a few days left in 2020, right? I honestly think this is about to happen. Here’s how I explained it one year ago: “Saddled with increasingly negative public opinion and driven in large part by concerns over retaining its workforce, Google will make a deeply surprising and game changing move in 2020.” Google’s problems with both public perception (hello, three government lawsuits!) and an unhappy workforce only deepened this year – the Timnit disaster was just the most public of its struggles. But so far the company hasn’t produced a dramatic “game changing” move. Sure, the FitBit acquisition finally closed, but if that proves material, I’ll … start using a FitBit again. I firmly believe that Google must make a game changing move, and soon, if it’s going to keep its mojo. But….it certainly hasn’t happened yet. So…sigh…Whiff.
    7. At least one major “on demand” player will capitulate. Just weeks into 2020, I was well on my way to a “Nailed It” here. The tide was turning on the entire category: Uber was in trouble and badly below its IPO price, GrubHub was a falling knife looking for a buyer, PostMates had shelved its IPO dreams. And then…COVID reordered the universe, making on demand everything an essential part of quarantine life.  The entire category was supercharged – I mean, DoorDash at 19 times sales?!?! – and yet another of my predictions bit the dust. F U, COVID. Whiff.
    8. Influencer marketing will fall out of favor. Well, if ever there was a year to be sick of influencer marketing, it’d be this one. But no, with sports and entertainment programming suspended for the majority of the year, all that marketing budget had to go somewhere, and lord knows it wasn’t going to support news (despite that being the most engaged and highest growth category of all). So…brands threw in even more with influencers.  In my explanation I predicted that influencer fraud would be a huge problem – and by most accounts it is (the last figure I could find was 1.3 billion in 2019 – which was roughly 20 percent of the overall market!). But…influencer marketing did not fall out of favor, Charlie D’Amelio is making $50K per post, and damnit, I whiffed again.
    9. Information warfare becomes a national bogeyman. Finally, a slam dunk. Man, I was starting to question myself here. “Deep fakes, sophisticated state-sponsored information operations, and good old fashioned political info ops will dominate the headlines in 2020,” I wrote. Yep, and true to form, 2020 saved the scariest example for the end of the year. Nailed it.
    10. Purpose takes center stage in business. Here’s one prediction where COVID actually accelerated my take toward a passing grade. The year began with BlackRock’s stunning declaration that it would make investment decisions based on climate impact. Once COVID and the George Floyd murder came, nearly the entire Fortune 500 recalibrating their communication strategies around racial, gender, and climate equity issues. Last year I wrote “I expect plenty of CEOs will feel emboldened to take the kind of socially minded actions that would have gotten them fired in previous eras.” Whether it was P&G on climate and race,  Nike saying “Don’t Do It,” or nearly every major sports league standing with the Black Lives Matter movement, companies have taken previously unimaginable stands this year. Nailed It.
    11. Apple and/or Amazon stumble. Sure, Apple did pay up to half a billion to bury its “batterygate” scandal but let’s be honest, you  forgot about that, right? Even the publication of a terrifying expose of worker conditions in iPhone manufacturing plants failed to dent the company in 2020. But what you likely will remember is the Epic Fortnite story – and to me, that’s the stumble that tips my prediction to a “Nailed it.” Apple’s response to Epic was ham fisted and short sighted. The company  misread regulators’ appetite for antitrust, deeply injured its reputation amongst developers, and exposed the iOS App Store – the source of its most important growth revenues – as a pristine monopoly just begging for a Federal compliant. Meanwhile, while Amazon profited handsomely from COVID, the company’s reputation has only worsened in 2020. A drumbeat of negative press about unsafe working conditions, union busting, and anticompetitive practices culminated in a broadside from one of its own – Tim Bray, a respected technologist (and early reader of Searchblog) who penned a damning Dear John letter to his former employer  in May. Despite the strength of both companies’ stock prices, I think it’s safe to say that both Apple and Amazon stumbled in 2020. Nailed It.

    So there you have it, my review of how my predictions fared in 2020. Five right, six wrong, for a batting average of .454. Far better than last year, where I hit just .300, but far below some of my best. Still, not bad if you factor in COVID’s impact on nearly everything. Next week I’ll be writing Predictions 2021 – let’s hope this is the start of a trend.


    Previous predictions:

    Predictions 2020

    Predictions 2019

    2019: How I did

    Predictions 2018

    2018: How I Did

    Predictions 2017

    2017: How I Did

    Predictions 2016

    2016: How I Did

    Predictions 2015

    2015: How I Did

    Predictions 2014

    2014: How I Did

    Predictions 2013

    2013: How I Did

    Predictions 2012

    2012: How I Did

    Predictions 2011

    2011: How I Did

    Predictions 2010

    2010: How I Did

    2009 Predictions

    2009 How I Did

    2008 Predictions

    2008 How I Did

    2007 Predictions

    2007 How I Did

    2006 Predictions

    2006 How I Did

    2005 Predictions

    2005 How I Did

    2004 Predictions

    2004 How I Did

     
  • feedwordpress 22:06:06 on 2014/08/25 Permalink
    Tags: casper, chartbeat, foursquare, grubhub, Lerer Ventures, , MRY, new york city, , , pave, purpose, retoy, sprinklr, , tumblr, wichcraft   

    NewCo New York 2014: My Chairman’s Picks To Visit 


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    The post NewCo New York 2014: My Chairman’s Picks To Visit appeared first on John Battelle's Search Blog.

    newcony

    Last week I created my schedule for NewCo San Francisco, and wrote about them here. What many folks don’t know is that there are now nine confirmed NewCo festivals around the world. Three weeks after San Francisco, nearly 100 New York companies will be opening their doors and welcoming festival goers in our second annual NewCo New York, Sept. 30th-Oct. 2nd. If you live in NY, or are going there for Advertising Week this Sept.29-October 3rd, please register and visit some of your favorites.

    With that in mind, here are my picks for New York.

    Day One, Weds. October 1st

    tumblr9 am - Tumblr. I knew the company back before it was acquired by Yahoo!, but I have not been back since. I cannot wait to grok the vibe of the place again. This is perhaps the most compelling part of NewCo Festivals for me – the vibe of the company you get simply by being inside the place. Tumblr has not yet uploaded its session description (tick tick, folks!), so I don’t know who is presenting, but it doesn’t matter – I want to get smart about this company once again. Runners up:  Simulmedia and Dstillery. Both are run by great colleagues of mine – so I already know a lot about their businesses. But both are worth a look – as they are disrupting media models in television and advertising, respectively.

    foursquare10:30 am – Foursquare. Founder and CEO Dennis Crowley will be presenting Foursquare much-anticipated reboot, and I’m looking forward to hearing about the strategy from the founder’s mouth. Crowley has ridden the hype cycle up, down and now back up again, and I plan to learn as much as I can from that experience. Runners up: Evoke Neuroscience and General Assembly. Evoke is all about wearables and health data, a field I want to learn – but I’ll have to wait. And GA is re-thinking education in the tech space, a burgeoning market that I’m keeping an eye on.

    Chartbeat12 pm – Chartbeat. I keep hearing great things about this “attention metrics” company, but know precious little about it. What a great opportunity to learn more and connect to its leaders – as with most NewCo sessions, the presentor is also the CEO. Runners up: Basno, a bitcoin blockchain company, and Glimpse, whose founder is doing a session on the ups and downs of running a startup.

    retoy1.30 pm – Retoy. This is a flyer, but who doesn’t want to see a new kind of toy company? The CEO of Retoy will present on overcoming the “jar jar effect” of groupthink inside companies of all sizes. Runners up: RebelMouse and Zeel. RebelMouse is one of my investments and has a great founding team. Zeel is bring massages on demand everywhere – including the NY NewCo session!

    MRY3 pm – MRY Group. I’ve always marveled at the work of agencies in the media world, but not spent much time with the creative side of that industry. MRY sounds like a new kind of agency that is rethinking how to work with cutting edge brands. Runners up: The New School and Startup Institute. Both are educational in nature, but very unique. I’ve always wanted to get to know the New School – I may change my sked, it was really a toss up between MRY and The New School. And Startup Institute sounds like a very New York place to hang.

    LHV4.30 pm – Lerer Hippeau Ventures. One of the most connected and successful New York venture firms. I just could not pas sup a chance to see how they do what they do. Runners up: Yahoo! and OrderGroove. Yahoo! is always interesting, and I’d love to learn how the New York office feels compared to the Valley. And OrderGroove seems to be onto something really important when it comes to the conversation economy – connecting brands to truly loyal customers.

    Day Two, Thursday, October 2

    wichcraft9 am - ‘wichcraft. Ya gotta throw in a few curveballs at any NewCo. This is a food purveyor, one I’ve never heard of. But they focus on local and seasonal ingredients, and it’s always good to start your day with a company that has great food! Runners up: NYC Media Lab and NextJump. The NYC Media Lab sounds fascinating – a connector between NYC’s universities and its workplaces. And NextJump is a very “newco” NewCo – it’s mission is dead on to NewCo’s philosophy: “To change the world by changing the workplace.”

    casper10.30 am – Casper. “Taking back sleep on bed at a time.” A new kind of company disrupting the totally bullsh*t mattress industry? Yes please! Runners up: Kickstarter and DonorsChose. One has redefined how projects get funded, the other is one of the most powerful and agile philanthropic orgs around. So many great choices!

    pave12 pm – Pave. A better way to borrow money for a generation that grew up with the Internet. Fascinating. Runners Up: Parse.ly and Atavist. Both are editorial companies, the former focused on editorial analytics, the latter (and I am an investor) on story telling platforms and quality narrative product.

    purpose1.30 pm – Purpose. How do “movements” come together? I hope to learn that and more at Pave’s session, which includes case studies on movement-building around gun safety, the Syrian humanitarian crisis, marriage equality, climate, and more. Runners up: MPOWERD and Aviary. My kids use both these companies’ products, one to solar power his phone, the other to edit her photos on her mobile device.

    sprinklr3 pm – Sprinklr. Companies like Sprinklr help brands manage their content marketing streams. As someone with a bit of history in the field, I’m looking forward to finally meeting the team behind Sprinklr. Runners Up: SeatGeek and Animoto. SeakGeek helps fans figure out if they are getting scalped for tickets, and Animoto helps anyone make great videos (I could use the help!).

    grubhub4.30 pm – GrubHub. Did anyone think food delivery would be a massive business after Kozmo fell down? Well, it is, and I want to see how GrubHub did it. Runners up: Kenshoo and Capital One Labs. Kenshoo is a very smart marketing automation company, and I’d be quite interested in learning how an old school credit card player is innovating these days….

    Once again, 12 companies in two days. And consider this sked subject to change, there are so many great choices, I may well move it around a bit. Then again, as with last year, sessions will fill up quickly, so if you haven’t already, go register and fill out your sked now! NewCo New York promises to be an incredible experience.

    The post NewCo New York 2014: My Chairman’s Picks To Visit appeared first on John Battelle's Search Blog.

     
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