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  • feedwordpress 21:14:44 on 2014/11/16 Permalink
    Tags: , , Apple, , , , ,   

    The Internet Big Five: Doubling In Three Years On A Trillion Dollar Base 

    The post The Internet Big Five: Doubling In Three Years On A Trillion Dollar Base appeared first on John Battelle's Search Blog.

    From time to time I have tracked what I call the “Internet Big Five” – the key platform technology companies that are driving the Internet economy. Nearly three years ago I wrote the first of this series – The Internet Big Five. I identified Apple, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and Facebook as the “big five,” and compared their relative strengths in financials, consumer reach, and technology strengths. Some of the metrics were admittedly subjective – ranking relative offerings in “engagement” and “data,” for example.

    It seems about time to take another look at the Big Five, and to consider a changeup – the introduction of Alibaba as a public company in the US certainly merits consideration. But before I do that, let’s quickly take a look at how the companies have fared over three short years.

    Nov. 14 big five market cap

    The first thing to observe is this: The top five Internet companies had a combined market cap of nearly one trillion dollars three years ago, a very large base to be sure. But in those three short years, the group managed to almost double their market cap – to $1.8 trillion. That’s impressive growth, and a testament to how central the markets believe these companies to be in our economy. Also, in terms of relative market cap, the Big Five have stayed pretty constant, with Facebook lapping Amazon, but not reaching the heights of Google, Microsoft, or Apple. It’s interesting to see that the market still values Microsoft above Google, something I imagine might change over the next three years.

    Stock prices show a similar trajectory. You’d have almost doubled your money if you had invested in these five companies back in late 2011:

    Nov. 14 stock big five

    Clearly these companies are killing it at a very large scale. And Alibaba, at a market cap of nearly $300 billion, can now claim its place comfortably on the list above both Facebook and Amazon.

    But what about strategic strengths? This is the area I find fascinating. Two years ago I wrote The Internet Big Five By Product Strength , and featured this chart:

    TheIntBigFiveByProdv2-1024x642

    Pulling back, it strikes me that the chart needs a refresh – something I hope to do during the more reflective down time of the coming holidays.  I’d also like to add in Alibaba. But a quick scan of this two year-old chart shows some interesting developments.

    In Operating Systems, Social, and Entertainment, each company’s position has pretty much remained constant, but Facebook’s Oculus purchase bears watching in all three fronts.  In Productivity Software, Google’s position has strengthened, as has Apple, but I’d give the edge to Google, whose Apps suite has gained serious traction. In Advertising, Facebook is now very strong, Amazon has also strengthened, and it seems Apple has determined that advertising is a necessary evil not worth pushing very hard. “Tablet” doesn’t feel like a category to break out separately anymore – in the next rev, I’ll probably just call it “mobile devices.” In that category, Microsoft keeps trying but not gaining traction, Amazon flopped with Fire Phone but holds steady with Kindle and Fire tablets, and Facebook seems uncertain if it wants to play. Google and Apple remain the kings. Search as a category that bears scrutiny – what is “search” in a post mobile world, anyway? This question is fundamental to the next five or so years in computing, I’d warrant – expect more posts on that over the holidays. In Payment, Apple has strengthened, And in Voice, almost all the players have improved as well.

    All of these companies have shifted over the past three years, some in unpredictable ways. With Page back at Google, the company has broadened its scope to include wearables, transportation, health, and energy. It’s become what I’d call the world’s first information-first conglomerate. Apple has kept its narrow hardware focus, expanding slowly into wearables (the watch) and shying from bets outside its clear wheelhouse. The market seems to be rewarding this focus. Facebook has made some big bets with drones and VR, and its advertising business is on a tear. Amazon hasn’t have any breakaway hits over the past three years, and I sense the company is uncertain how to proceed given the maturity of its core market.

    In fact, one way to think about these behemoths is to identify and explore their core cash cows, and then map their strategies to diversify from that core. To wit:

    Apple ———> Hardware

    Microsoft —–> Desktop, Enterprise SW

    Google ——–> Search Advertising

    Amazon ——-> eCommerce

    Faecbook —–> Social Advertising

    Perhaps that’ll be the fodder for another post.

    The post The Internet Big Five: Doubling In Three Years On A Trillion Dollar Base appeared first on John Battelle's Search Blog.

     
  • feedwordpress 23:17:03 on 2014/10/05 Permalink
    Tags: alex austin, Apple, , , , , , mobile quickening, ,   

    The Next Stage of Mobile Quickening: Links Get Intelligent 

    The post The Next Stage of Mobile Quickening: Links Get Intelligent appeared first on John Battelle's Search Blog.

    HowItWorks

    How Branch Metrics works…click to enlarge.

    Early in a conversation with Alex Austin, CEO of mobile startup Branch Metrics, I had to interrupt and ask what seemed like a really dumb question. “So, wait, Alex, you’re telling me that the essence of your company’s solution is that it….makes sure a link works?”

    Alex had heard the question before. But yes, in truth, what his company specializes in is making sure that a link works in a very particular kind of mobile use case. And doing so is a lot harder than it might seem, he added. Branch Metrics, a three-year old startup that began as a way to create and share photo albums from your iPhone, is now devoted entirely to solving what should be a dead easy problem, but thanks to the way the mobile ecosystem has played out, it’s just not. (Alex has written up a great overview of his journey at Branch, worth reading here).

    A month or so I wrote Early Lessons From My Mobile Deep Dive: The Quickening Is Nigh, an overview of my initial learnings as I explored today’s mobile landscape. A major conclusion: the emergence of deep linking is leading to entirely new opportunities in mobile, and the mobile marketing machine is a key place to explore if you want to understand the implications.

    Since then, I’ve spent more time talking to folks like Alex, and I’ve come to another conclusion: the next step in the mobile quickening will be intelligent links.

    Now, before you go Googling “intelligent links” – I’ll admit there is no clear nomenclature per se, because in the past we’ve not had a need for such a distinction. After all, on the open web, all links can be intelligent, because they can pass information from site to site via cookies, redirects, and various increasingly sophisticated hacks.

    Not so in mobile.

    In his wonderful post outlining Branch’s initial failures and eventual pivot, Alex notes: “The biggest growth issue we faced in our mobile app was the fact that Apple doesn’t let you track users and pass context through the install process. …To break down this barrier would mean making the mobile app ecosystem more like the functionality we’re used to on the web.”

    So that’s what Branch set out to do – in essence, to make mobile work more like the web. Branch’s initial photo book product may have failed for any number of reasons, but what stood out for Alex was how hard it was for the product to self-replicate across a customer base. A customer would create a cool photo book, and then want to share it with a friend. Of course, the best way to share is via a link to the photo book – that’s the viral calling card. But when a friend clicks on the link, Branch ran into the limits of mobile apps. It gets kind of convoluted, so let me break it down in steps:

    1. Customer downloads Branch and uses it to create a cool photo book.

    2. Customer wants to share the photo book with her friends, which she does using Branch’s internal sharing features.

    3. Branch’s sharing features generate a deep link that is sent via email (or a Tweet, or Facebook, etc).

    4. Friend receives invitation via email to check out a cool photo book.

    5. Friend clicks on Branch’s deep link.

    6. Friend does NOT have Branch’s app installed, so is linked to the Branch app download landing page in the iTunes store.

    **THIS IS FRICTION POINT #1. In an ideal world, a potential customer should not have to go through the Apple app store just to view a cool media object that’s been shared (this wouldn’t happen on the web). **

    7. Friend decides to download the app, tells Apple OK, accepts the app’s terms and services, fires up the app, and….

    8. Sees the generic welcome screen that the app brings up for every new user. Now he has to create a new account, set a password, etc. Confused, he wonders whatever happened to the photo book he was looking for.

    **THIS IS FRICTION POINT #2. The friend just wanted to check out the cool photo book, but the information of the original URL, which pointed to the actual media object, has been lost.**

    9. Friend is confused as how to actually use the Branch app to see his friend’s cool photo book. He pokes around a bit, but quickly loses interest when he sees a new notification from SnapChat, or Facebook, or whatever.

    10. Friend never becomes a new customer of Branch, nor ever actually sees the photo book.

    This is a deeply lame experience, and one that seriously limits any app developer’s business. “You can’t have someone have to type their password in, and go through a long install and configuration to start using the app,” Alex told me.

    So Branch pivoted, and created a lightweight SDK (software development kit) that, when installed by the app maker, allows the media object in question to appear once the app is installed.

    Sounds super simple, but according to Alex, it was quite complicated, not least because getting app makers to install SDKs is non-trivial. However, Branch is finding traction with scores of app makers because the company solves a major marketing problem in mobile – how to create more fluid conversion and engagement paths which ultimately lead to more customers.

    This is the evolution of the intelligent mobile link – something that’s sorely needed in the mobile ecosystem. It all starts with the ability to pass data through a link – something that Apple has not allowed in the past. But Branch’s elegant hack around Apple’s shortsighted policy is one more important step toward creating a truly mobile web, one that combines the richness and device-specific capabilities of an app with the universality of an open web architecture.

    “It’s like 1995″ in mobile apps, Alex concluded. “We are just figuring out how to turn on the Internet on the phone.”

    When I start to think about where this goes from here, I start to get very excited – intelligent links are the beginning of a whole new mobile experience. The next step is to break down the hegemony of the app store itself – why should we have to go through an authentication, download, and configuration process just to see what’s behind a link? We shouldn’t, and soon, I imagine we won’t. Of course this has serious implications for the hegemonies of Apple and Google’s app store choke points, but in the end, both companies are all about creating great experiences for their users, right?

    Take it one step beyond erasing the app store friction, and we can imagine a world where apps work like always on-call services, at the ready to execute their portion of a fluid user experience. Explaining that experience will be the subject of a future post. But for now,  amen for folks like Alex and companies like Branch Metrics. Keep up the good work.

    The post The Next Stage of Mobile Quickening: Links Get Intelligent appeared first on John Battelle's Search Blog.

     
  • feedwordpress 17:28:39 on 2014/08/25 Permalink
    Tags: adobe, , , aol, Apple, AppNexus, database of intentions, , , , , oracle, , salesforce, , , turn, ,   

    AdTech Is Alive and Well: I’ll Have the Full Stack, Please 

    The post AdTech Is Alive and Well: I’ll Have the Full Stack, Please appeared first on John Battelle's Search Blog.

    National-Pancake-Day-at-IHOPReading The Information’s piece on Facebook’s reported re-introduction of the Atlas ad-serving technology, I wondered – Does the market really need six or more full stack adtech solutions?

    Google is the undisputed leader in the field – it’s spent nearly ten years stitching its own technology into acquisitions like DoubleClick (the original ad server), AdMeld (supply side platform), AdWords (search), AdMobs (mobile), Teracent (targeting), Invite Media (demand side platform),  spider.io (anti-fraud), Adometry (attribution) and many others.

    So why would anyone want to challenge Google’s dominance? Because if you’re a major Internet player, you can’t afford to hand Google all the leverage – both financial as well as data and insight. If you have hundreds of millions of logged in customers (all of whom create valuable data), you need to be able to understand their actions across multiple channels and offer those insights to your marketing clients. And that means you need to own your own ad stack.

    This is why Facebook is building its own adtech stack. This is why Yahoo! and AOL are once again investing in their stacks. And this is why Twitter is building out a similar stack with MoPub (mobile), AdGrok (search), RestEngine (email marketing), Bluefin (video analytics), Trendr (social analytics), Gnip (analytics), Namo (native ads), TapCommerce (retargeting), and certainly more to come.

    I think the most interesting one to watch in all this is Apple, which has a rather Microsoft-like approach to advertising – it’s in the game, big time, but seems uncertain of how it wants to play in the space. Apple has made significant purchases – Quattro (mobile) and Topsy (analytics) come to mind, but it hasn’t fully committed, and its data use policies and general philosophy are famously confusing to marketers.

    And beyond Apple, there’s Amazon – which is quietly building out a full stack solution of its own. Oh, and there are several point-solution companies that are now public, or near-public, who want to play as well – AppNexus, Turn, Rubicon, and RocketFuel, which recently bought DMP X+1. Not to mention the consolidators – Oracle, Salesforce, Adobe, IBM, even SAP – any of which may decide they want to get into the full stack game as well.

    Given my point of view on what adtech really represents, I think the truth is no major Internet company can afford to outsource its ability to gather, process, leverage, and exploit real time information on the database of intentions. Adtech may be today’s poster child of stock market slumps, but I think the market is failing to understand adtech’s true value proposition. And that means more deals are on the way.

    The post AdTech Is Alive and Well: I’ll Have the Full Stack, Please appeared first on John Battelle's Search Blog.

     
  • feedwordpress 23:24:00 on 2014/08/18 Permalink
    Tags: , appboy, Apple, , , , , , Kahuna, , mobile development, , URX   

    Why I’m Watching Deep Linking In Mobile 

    The post Why I’m Watching Deep Linking In Mobile appeared first on John Battelle's Search Blog.

    first web page

    The first ever web page, created by Sir Tim Berners Lee to explain, naturally, the WWW.

    We are at a turning point in the mobile app ecosystem where deeplinking is becoming a priority and not just a feature.URX blog

    This week marks the beginning of a journey I’m taking to understand “deep linking” in mobile. I’ve kept one eye on the space for some time, but it’s clearly heating up. Last Spring three major mobile players – Facebook, Google, and Apple – all announced significant developments in deep linking. Twitter has also fortified its deep linking capabilities of late, as has Yahoo.

    Most of these major players are supporting deep linking for commercial reasons – their business is driven by advertising, and a huge cut of mobile advertising revenues are in turn driven by app installs. Marketers want to be able to link directly to specific places inside their apps, so they can drive qualified leads to convert (and measure effectiveness/optimize campaigns). To be clear, these are the ads that show up inside apps on your mobile phone encouraging you to download a free game or service. These install ads make up a huge percentage of mobile advertising revenue, though it’s hard to find hard figures for exactly what percentage. Current estimates range between 30 and 50% - either way, that makes them the largest category of mobile advertising, period.

    This all reminds me of how search played out on the desktop Web – search was a huge percentage of overall “online advertising” revenues in the early days, but it took a while before analysts started breaking search out as a category independent of “online advertising.” Twenty years into search, that category still represents more than 40% of all online ad revenues. So yep, I’m watching deep linking, because I think there’s a big there there.

    But there’s a funny hitch to the evolution of linking inside our mobile ecosystem. On the Web, the link is pretty much the atomic unit of value – from the get go, *anyone* could create a link from one web page to another. The web was built on links, and in the early days those links were built, for the most part, by *users* of the web – people like you and me. We built link-heavy websites, we blogged and linked profusely, we emailed links around, and in doing so we connected static web pages one to another, all in the name of navigation, discovery, and ease of use. It was only later, as search rose to prominence and people started to realize the commercial value of links, that the SEO industry became a commercial monster. In short, linking behavior predated commercial exploitation.

    But in the mobile web, commercial exploitation is driving linking behavior, and I find that fascinating. Certainly there’s any number of reasons for this, from Apple’s early iOS design decisions to the fact that apps are, for the most part, personalized experiences that are not driven by the early web’s model of static pages meant for consumption by any and all comers. Regardless, I’ve got a hunch about deep linking - I’m hoping it’s the seedbed for a major shift in how we experience mobile computing. For now, mobile deep linking is the purview of developers and savvy mobile marketers. But I think in time this may change. I wrote a bit about that hunch here:

    …while developer-driven deep links are great, the next step in mobile won’t really take off until average folks like you and I can easily create and share our own links within apps. Once the “consumers” start creating links, mobile will finally break out of this ridiculous pre-web phase it’s been stuck in for the past seven or so years, and we’ll see a mobile web worthy of its potential.

    I imagine a time when applications encourage their users to share links from inside apps, and everyone finds that sharing behavior will create a positive feedback loop similar to the one that drove the rise of the original Web. From there, any number of innovations will arise, speculating on what those might be is worthy of several future posts.

    For now, I’ve come across a crop of startups focusing on deep linking as well various industry efforts in the field (I have Semil Shah and Roy Bahat, among others, to thank for my early lessons in the space). In the coming weeks, I’m meeting with many of them, including URX, Kahuna, DeeplinkAppboy and several stealth startups, and of course larger players like Twitter. As I get smart, and if I find interesting stuff, I’ll report back here. In the meantime, if you’ve got any suggestions for me, please leave them in comments or ping me on Twitter. Thanks!

    The post Why I’m Watching Deep Linking In Mobile appeared first on John Battelle's Search Blog.

     
  • feedwordpress 17:50:58 on 2014/06/30 Permalink
    Tags: Apple, , deep links, , , google i/o, valley culture   

    Else 6.30.14: Input, Output, Kaput 

    The post Else 6.30.14: Input, Output, Kaput appeared first on John Battelle's Search Blog.

    EndofInternet

    This past week in tech brought Google’s I/O developer conference, and with it lots of debate on the culture of the Valley, the future of links in the mobile world, the end of the Internet (again), and the death of the IPO. To the (dead? resurgent?) links:

    In­side the Mir­rortoc­ra­cy – Carlos Buenos  From time to time a commentator hits the mark when it comes to the Valley’s culture. This piece resonated for many last week – and sparked a renewed debate about whether the Valley is too insular.

    The next thing Silicon Valley needs to disrupt big time: its own culture – Quartz A complement to the piece above. After all, we’ve had enough of disruption, no? No! Time to disrupt our culture of disruption, naturally!

    The End of the Internet? – The Atlantic Every week, the Internet is over, apparently. This piece tracks the regionalization of the Internet, thanks in no small part to the NSA’s broad reach and geopolitical impact.

    Disrupting Innovative Game Changing Disruptors – NewCo In which I give an overview of the Christensen fracas, and some thoughts on why it matters.

    Facebook Doesn’t Understand The Fuss About Its Emotion Manipulation Study – Forbes Last week Facebook was caught a bit flat-footed when a study that manipulated some of its users’ emotions was uncovered. It’s hard Facebook, to be sure, but this study should have been flagged early for its PR implications.

    Google’s master plan: Turn everything into data- Slate Yup. That’s pretty much at the core of it. However, this would be happening whether or not it was “Google’s master plan.”

    The IPO is dying. Marc Andreessen explains why. – Vox I saw Marc speak last week at a conference, and he made these points quite compellingly.

    Google’s Grand Plans: A Conversation With Larry Page and Sundar Pichai – NYTimes Last week’s I/O gave the world a chance to consider Google with some perspective. This is one of the better interviews that came out of the press deluge. See also this piece from the Times on Page’s plans and this on the main news from I/O.

    Understanding Apple’s Wearable Strategy | Tech.pinions Yes, and it’s not just Apple where identity is the key axis point of wearable, it’s the next most important signal after location. First, where is this person? Second, WHO is this person? Third, WHAT is this person doing? And fourth…WHY?!

    Search and Apps – Give Consumers Back Their Links – searchblog I’ve been on about this for some time, I sense a gathering movement that bears watching. More here.

    Living in a Fool’s Paradise | Boom: A Journal of California A new journal has a good overview of the impact the tech boom is having on real estate in California.

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    The post Else 6.30.14: Input, Output, Kaput appeared first on John Battelle's Search Blog.

     
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